A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
